Friends,Like most of you out there, we at weather office were also eager to see a bumper snow in Srinagar City yesterday n today but that didnt happen. We had a reason to believe so that analysis of many weather Models both domestic & foreign, surface charts, Highs & Lows pressure, bla bla bla, we were confident of Good Snow in plains of Kashmir as well. Accordingly we issued an early warning, so that people can take better decisions, save time & money as well as plan for playing during snowfall. Do you know why we did so? We did so, Because your well being is our concern..!
What went wrong?
1. South Westerly winds carried out Moisture at lower troposhpere from Arabian sea, which is warmer ( these air) than the northerly continental wind( Observe satellite Image)
2. After 16th Jan. there was gradual increase in both Max. & Min. surface temp. till today 21st Jan.( Observe attached Image).
Apart from many other possible factors, these are the reason for Rain in place of snow in plains of valley. As expected, there were heavy snowfall at many places especially of North East Kashmir & Zanskar, Drass & Pirpanjal mountains.
Current situation: The Western Disturbance is still affecting the state and is moving gradually towards South Eastwards H.P, U.K , Punjab.
Forecast for nxt 24hrs: Moderate to Heavy Rain/snow at most places of Jmu & Kmr and few places of Ladakh.
Significant improvement from 23rd onwards.(Sonam Lotus)